With the 2027 elections drawing nearer, three major deals will shape the president's political prospects.
Almost three years into his term as president of Kenya, William Ruto is encountering increasing challenges that could potentially disrupt his leadership. His administration is currently contending with significant economic, political, and societal stresses.
Dissatisfaction, initially ignited by demonstrations against the Finance Bill of 2024, has flared up again due to pervasive mistrust and rage concerning the newly introduced social health insurance. policies Meanwhile, the impeachment of ex-vice president Rigathi Gachgua has altered the political landscape within the alliance that helped bring Ruto into office.
From an external perspective, reductions in foreign assistance along with the uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's shifting policies pose multiple risks. These elements combined have diminished both global and local faith in Kenya’s direction.
Ruto faces the challenge of negotiating three major deals simultaneously: satisfying the requirements of international lenders and allies, navigating shifting local political coalitions, and tackling the worries of Kenyan citizens—all as the 2027 elections draw nearer.
Under the Joe Biden administration, Kenya had a favored relationship with the United States, particularly during Ruto's time. dubbed Biden's 'blue-eyed boy'. Nairobi's strategic location and geopolitical significance, coupled with shared interests in climate and security, strengthened ties between the two nations.
This point was highlighted through several prominent diplomatic trips, such as President Ruto’s official visit to the White House in the previous year—the first by an African leader since 2008—and Secretary Antony Blinken along with Second Lady Jill Biden’s travels to Kenya spanning from 2021 to 2024. Additionally, Ruto fostered a close connection withMeg Whitman, the polarising the previous U.S. envoy to Kenya, who stepped down after Donald Trump won the presidency.
Two key developments further demonstrated Kenya's geopolitical importance to Washington. One was its designation as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally in 2024, which elevated its role in regional and international security. The second was the deployment of 1 000 Kenyan police officers to combat gang violence in Haiti. Both are products of the strengthening of Kenya-US ties.
However, Trump's return to power presents significant challenges for Kenya. Whether Ruto can navigate this shift and build bridges to safeguard the country's economy remains to be seen. Two major concerns are potential foreign aid cuts and a reversal of the climate agenda, which underpinned much of the bilateral relationship under Biden.
Kenya is particularly vulnerable on both fronts. In the healthcare sector alone, an estimated 50 000 jobs are at risk, with experts warning of an escalating crisis in access to medical services and a potential brain drain. Similarly, aggressive cuts to climate funding threaten critical clean energy initiatives and will hamper Kenya's ability to respond to climate-related disasters.
The key question is whether Ruto can find a pathway to Trump, given his historical closeness to Biden, or whether Trump will hold it against him - as he did with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Completing the outstanding Strategic Trade and Investment Policy Partnership , which began during Trump's first term, might serve as a logical starting point. Ruto needs to develop and communicate a strong case for why Kenya should maintain its favored position under the incoming government.
Ruto faces significant internal unrest and the imperative of maintaining stability for his political future, which overshadows his diplomatic efforts. Following large-scale demonstrations against the 2024 Finance Bill and related taxation measures in June/July 2024, he has struggled to gain favor with locals, notably young people.
Kenya's so-called Generation Z movement stays prepared to rally against a political leader they see as not addressing multiple socioeconomic issues. These problems encompass high joblessness, inadequate governance, and an ineffective public health system. scheme - All while taxes have gone up. These tax increases were promoted as a way to address Kenya's critical financial situation and unmanageable debt, as part of an effort to satisfy the International Monetary Fund Fund and creditors - to prevent a default.
Although appears to be cautious, Ruto's efforts to appease international financial institutions and fix Kenya's budgetary issues have been progressively dismissed by the public. This comes as many believe that he is exerting excessive strain on Kenyans without tackling unnecessary spending and bloated costs. salaries and enduring corruption .
As Ruto finds himself cornered, he has once again entered into a 'handshake agreement,' which has turned out to be synonymous In the aftermath of last year’s Generation Z protests, Ruto welcomed members from the opposing Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), headed by well-known opposition leader Raila Odinga, aiming to establish a coalition government. This resulted in Odinga's fourth ‘handshake’, which was finalized on March 7th. agreement to create a government with wide-ranging representation.
Ruto might be optimistic that Odinga and his party, ODM, becoming more involved in the government will strengthen their partnership. Additionally, he may hope that Odinga’s substantial following could convert into greater backing for him ahead of the 2027 elections.
The broad-based government has similarly brought in politicians from previously excluded groups, hoping to secure their support. To this end, securing Odinga's support also prevents him from aligning himself with the ousted Gachagua, who is stewing in the vote-rich Mount Kenya region and seeking a return to politics.
Incidentally, Gachagua has formed his own alliance Alongside Odinga’s running mate Martha Karua, who, similar to the ex-deputy president, aimed to attract votes from the Mount Kenya region during the 2022 elections.
With the introduction of the 2025 Finance Bill and the commemoration of last year's disturbances nearing, Ruto must work to pacify the domestic populace, fulfill the demands of worried lenders, and guarantee that Kenya’s influential patronage systems remain advantaged.
Although the agreement with Odinga offers some protection, Ruto still faces vulnerabilities. His political fate will depend on how he handles situations in the upcoming months, particularly as the 2025 Finance Bill could be crucial for his prospects.
Ruto must prioritize public demands over creditors' expectations to avoid any protests against his leadership. Nonetheless, failing to adequately address creditors’ concerns could also endanger the economy—and consequently Ruto’s position—over the medium to long term.
Despite Ruto maintaining this precarious equilibrium, past events in Kenya indicate that numerous outcomes remain plausible leading up to the 2027 elections.
Ronak Gopaldas , ISS Consultant and Director of Signal Risk
Daniel Van Dalen , Signal Risk Analytics - Country Risk Specialist
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. Syndigate.info ).
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